In the final Bellwether Analysis, we use the data to draw conclusions about the 2020 election and its implications on swing counties in future elections.
Part 4 – The Future of the Bellwether
In this final analysis, we endeavor to look objectively at the data without inclusion of bias one way or another. Bellwether Blues was written on the basis of empirical evidence leading to conclusions on the millennial generation. Similar to the book, this final analysis is divided into three sections:
- Data Analysis
- Living Narratives
- Implications
Bellwether Blues takes a deep dive into Wood County, Ohio to investigate millennial voting patterns in mainland America. Here is a short recap of the results from Wood County in 2020:
- Record Turnout: 68,103 in ’20 vs. 64,826 in ’16
- Precincts: Trump won 63% of Wood County precincts
- Overall: Trump won Wood County by 7.6% points
The bellwether counties in our analysis are the 58 of 3,142 counties or similar subdivisions which voted 2x Bush, 2x Obama, 1x Trump.
Here is a recap of the overall results in 2020:
- Bellwether Total: 58, 100%
- Biden in ’20: 7, 12%
- Trump in ’20: 51, 88%
These seven counties which hail from AZ, DE, MN, MO, NH, VA, and WI, voted for Trump in ’16 by 2.81%. In ’20, these counties flipped to vote for Biden by 3.58%. Voter turnout increased by a staggering 35% from 1.87MM in ’16 to 2.52MM voters in ’20.
51 Trump Counties:
- Trump: 733634, 56.35%, 14.52%
- Biden: 590312, 41.83%
- Trump: 644278, 53.99%, 13.79%
- Clinton: 514454, 40.19%
7 Biden Counties:
- Trump: 122574, 47.25%, 3.58%
- Biden: 130203, 50.83%
- Trump: 961745, 48.16%, 2.81%
- Clinton: 910584, 45.36%
6 Biden Counties (Without Maricopa):
- Trump: 38346, 45.94%, 6.2%
- Biden: 43455, 52.16%
What else does the data show?
Of the 7 counties that voted for Biden, only 4 of them were from swing states. Meanwhile, 25 of the 51 counties that voted for Trump were in swing states. Only one Biden county was in the Rust Belt, while 20 Trump counties were from the Rust Belt. This shows us a shift in blue-collar voting persuasions, as all of these Rust Belt counties except one has manufacturing as the primary base of employment.
Another revelation is that there was an increase in split ticket voting, particularly in the Biden counties. Republicans saw an increase of 67% in their state legislature seats, and we found that this came with some voters voting for Biden at the top, but then voting Republican near the bottom. In the seven counties that voted for Biden, there were a possible 41 State Representative seats available, and of the 41 the breakdown was 25 Republican to 16 Democratic. Of note is that only two of states represented had their results challenged in court.
Living Narratives
Bellwether Blues takes a deep dive into the stories of seven millennials who changed their voting persuasion. Stories are vital to understanding what shapes the data. It is important to note that these seven individuals, as with all human beings, experience new realities, contexts, and relationships, which can invariably alter their political positions. Voters have a free conscience and the potential to be persuaded. This basic understanding is often lost in the macro analysis of the data. Of the most critical findings in Bellwether Blues is the fact that authentic relationship will always be more persuasive than any campaign strategy.
Implications
Trump created a unique coalition of voters based upon pushing back against the leftist-dominated institutions. His coalition consisted of the forgotten class of individuals in so called “fly-over country” that do not relate to the coastal elites. However, his hardened rhetoric dissuaded many former republicans in cities and suburbs from voting for him, even if they agreed with many of his policies.
In conclusion, there are no guarantees to what the future holds. The road ahead will be long and arduous, but the prosperity of future generations of Americans depends upon the success of the timeless principles of conservatism of faith, family, and freedom.
Author Jonathan Jakubowski
Twitter and Parler – @jonjakubowski
With special thanks to Brant Kitchen and Sam Huddleston for data support.
Sources: Bellwether Blues, Chapter 2 and 10, https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html#:~:text=Median%20household%20income%20was%20%2468%2C703,and%20Table%20A%2D1).https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/saipe/#/?map_geoSelector=aa_c, https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results, https://www.co.wood.oh.us/boe/Election%20Archives.html
Bellwether Blues unpacks the Ultimate Swing County in extraordinary detail and with powerful stories!
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