We hope that you had a very Merry Christmas! This analysis looks at the bellwether counties that voted for Trump.
Part 2 – The Bellwether That Went to the Right
As noted in the previous analysis, Bellwether Blues takes a deep dive into Wood County, Ohio to investigate millennial voting patterns in mainland America.
Here is a short recap of the results from Wood County in 2020:
- Record Turnout: 68,103 in ’20 vs. 64,826 in ’16
- Precincts: Trump won 63% of Wood County precincts
- Overall: Trump won Wood County by 7.6% points
However, Wood County is only one of the 58 counties throughout America which voted 2x Bush, 2x Obama, and 1x Trump. Is Wood County an anomaly? This analysis looks at how many of those counties voted once again for Trump.
Given the overall outcome, we believe you will be surprised by the results.
So, what happened in 2020?
- Bellwether Total: 58, 100%
- Biden in ’20: 7, 12%
- Trump in ’20: 51, 88%
Trump was able retain a staggering 88% of the bellwether counties.
What’s even more impressive in these counties is that he increased his margin of victory from 13.79% to 14.52% while voter turnout increased by over 14% from 1.16MM in ’16 to 1.32MM voters in ’20.
51 Trump Counties:
- Trump: 733634, 56.35%, 14.52%
- Biden: 590312, 41.83%
- Trump: 644278, 53.99%, 13.79%
- Clinton: 514454, 40.19%
How was this possible?
The growing urban/rural divide discussed in Bellwether Blues and highlighted in last week’s analysis of Wood County grew further in the ’20 election. The 51 counties which voted for Trump had an average of 27,021 voters and an average population of 57,403. As we will see next week, the county population voter metrics are significantly less than the average number of voters in the seven bellwether counties which voted for Biden. In over half of the 51 counties, manufacturing is the primary source of employment. The economics of these counties are slightly depressed with median household income $54k which is more than $10k below the national average. However, the poverty rate is slightly lower than the national average which is just above 14%.
- Average Population: 57,403
- Average Median HH Income Poverty %: $ 53,982.88, 13.39%
- Average Area: 872 SQ Miles
Implications
With 51 of 58 counties voting in favor of Trump, this led to many down-ticket victories throughout mainland America. Conservatives must understand what led to this success in these counties. As I highlight in a recent op-ed in BizPac Review, there is potential for the formation of a multiracial working class coalition, unprecedented in modern history. Bellwether Blues highlights seven diverse stories of millennial and the core message of faith, family, and freedom which led to “a Conservative Awakening of the Millennial Soul”.
What’s Next?
In next week’s Exclusive Bellwether Analysis, we will investigate the seven bellwethers that went to the left.
I pray that you and yours had a wonderful Christmas, continued holiday celebrations, and a Happy New Year!
Author Jonathan Jakubowski
Twitter and Parler – @jonjakubowski
With special thanks to Brant Kitchen for data support.
Sources: Bellwether Blues, Chapter 2 and 10, https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/12/19/the-new-working-class-coalition-1007454/, https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html#:~:text=Median%20household%20income%20was%20%2468%2C703,and%20Table%20A%2D1).https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/saipe/#/?map_geoSelector=aa_c, https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results, https://www.co.wood.oh.us/boe/Election%20Archives.html
Bellwether Blues unpacks the Ultimate Swing County in extraordinary detail and with powerful stories!
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