Of 88 counties in Ohio, there is one that most closely indicates the direction of the Ohio electorate.
Part 1 – The Bellwether of Ohio
Bellwether Blues takes a deep dive into Wood County, Ohio. One of three counties in Ohio which voted 2x Bush, 2x Obama, and 1x Trump. When Wood County dramatically shifted from Obama to Trump in ’16, the change indicated a larger shift taking place in the state of Ohio.
Wood County is ideal for examining millennial voter influence. Not only is Wood the largest in population and geography of the three swing counties (Ottawa, Sandusky, and Wood) but its population is also the youngest, with a median age of 34.7 years. Given the strength of the overall millennial vote, Wood County was expected to remain blue in the ’16 election. To everyone’s surprise, Wood County swung—and in dramatic fashion. Of Wood County’s 97 voter precincts, Obama won 70% in ’08 and 56% in ’12. However, in ’16, Trump won 73% of the precincts. And, true to the proxy status of this county, the Wood County 7.99% differential closely reflected the state’s 8.1% differential in favor of President Trump.
So, what happened in 2020?
- Record Turnout: 68,103 in ’20 vs. 64,826 in ’16
- Precincts: Trump won 63% of Wood County precincts
- Overall: Trump won Wood County by 7.6% points, just shy of the 8.0% state differential.
How did Trump win Wood County?
As noted in Bellwether Blues, there is a growing suburban/rural Divide. In Wood County’s five cities, ranging between a few thousand to just over 30,000 citizens, Trump won only 16 of 47 precincts, eight less precincts than in ’16. While he lost some ground in suburban and campus precincts, Trump strengthened his position throughout the rest of Wood County winning 44 of 48 precincts. His performance on Wood County’s blue-collar perimeter was especially strong as he increased his margin of victory from ’16 to ’20.
Implications
Trump’s win in Ohio’s Bellwether County once again was reflected at the state level, earning him Ohio’s 18 electoral votes. Strong performance at the top of ticket was reflected at the bottom of the ticket as Republicans retained super majorities in the state legislature. Success was further reflected at the county level as Republicans won every race in Wood County where there was a Party identifier. Judicial races do not have Party identification in Ohio.
What’s Next
In next week’s Exclusive Bellwether Analysis, we will investigate how many of the 58 Bellwether Counties followed a similar pattern.
Author Jonathan Jakubowski
Twitter and Parler – @jonjakubowski
Sources: Bellwether Blues, Chapter 2, https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/ohio/, https://www.co.wood.oh.us/boe/Election%20Archives.html
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